Short‐term flood inundation prediction using hydrologic‐hydraulic models forced with downscaled rainfall from global NWP          下载免费PDF全文

Do Hoai Nam  Dang Thanh Mai  Keiko Udo  Akira Mano 《水文研究》2014,28(24):5844-5859

A short‐term flood inundation prediction model has been formulated based on the combination of the super‐tank model, forced with downscaled rainfall from a global numerical weather prediction model, and a one‐dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. Different statistical methods for downscaled rainfall have been explored, taking into account the availability of historical data. It has been found that the full implementation of a statistical downscaling model considering physically‐based corrections to the numerical weather prediction model output for rainfall prediction performs better compared with an altitudinal correction method. The integration of the super‐tank model into the 1D hydraulic model demonstrates a minimal requirement for the calibration of rainfall–runoff and flood propagation models. Updating the model with antecedent rainfall and regular forecast renewal has enhanced the model's capabilities as a result of the data assimilation processes of the runoff and numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the predicted water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement with those measured by stream gauges and comparable to those reproduced using the actual rainfall. Moreover, the predicted flood inundation depth and extent exhibit reasonably similar tendencies to those observed in the field. However, large uncertainties are observed in the prediction results in lower, flat portions of the river basin where the hydraulic conditions are not properly analysed by the 1D flood propagation model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evaluation of food risk parameters in the Day River Flood Diversion Area,Red River Delta,Vietnam     

Nguyen Mai Dang  Mukand S. Babel  Huynh T. Luong 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(1):169-194

An interdisciplinary approach is necessary for flood risk assessment. Questions are often raised about which factors should be considered important in assessing the flood risk in an area and how to quantify these factors. This article defines and quantitatively evaluates the flood risk factors that would affect the Day River Flood Diversion Area in the context of integrated flood management in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. Expert analysis, in conjunction with field survey and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), is applied to define and quantify parameters (indicators, subcomponents, and components) that contribute to flood risk. Flood duration is found to be the most prominent indicator in determining flood hazard. Residential buildings, population, and pollution are other fairly significant indicators contributing to flood vulnerability from the economic, social, and environmental perspectives, respectively. The study results will be useful in developing comprehensive flood risk maps for policy-makers and responsible authorities. Besides, local residents will also be able to implement suitable measures for reducing flood risk in the study area.  相似文献   

渤海湾盆地及周边的古生古储油气藏——以双洞背斜古油藏与刘其营、苏桥潜山油气藏为例   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

杨克绳  党晓春  戴福贵 《海相油气地质》2007,12(3):27-32

双洞背斜古油藏、刘其营潜山油气藏、苏桥潜山油气藏均为古生古储或自生自储的油气藏(古油藏)。双洞古油藏位于燕山褶皱带山海关隆起北部,邻近渤海湾盆地,其含油层为中—上元古界铁岭组,而该处根本没有下第三系生油层,说明中—上元古界和古生界是其生烃层。刘其营油气藏位于冀中坳陷,储层为奥陶系,盖层为石炭系—二叠系,其上部新生界主要生油层为沙河街组三段,中间相隔厚度约1000～3000m的沙河街组四段和孔店组隔层。沙河街组三段所生之油气,无法穿过这一隔层及不整合面向下运移到奥陶系储层中,因此刘其营潜山油气藏也不可能是新生古储的。苏桥油气藏是一复式油气藏,上部石炭系—二叠系气藏与下部奥陶系油藏叠合,根据油、气、水性质的对比也可以排除新生古储的成藏模式。渤海湾盆地古生界和中—上元古界具有生烃能力,其中的临清坳陷具备在深部古老地层寻找原生油气藏的条件。  相似文献   

准噶尔盆地南缘山前冲断带芦草沟组储层含气性及主控因素分析——以米参2井为例     

梁斌  雷国明  党犇  史美超  刘明  安文涛  贺鹏 《新疆地质》2021,(1):129-133

在野外地质考察、重磁电勘探成果基础上,在准噶尔盆地南缘山前冲断带乌鲁木齐一带进行了页岩气参数井——米参2井施工。综合钻探、地质综合录井、测井和分析测试数据,进行该区芦草沟组泥页岩储层含气性评价,并对储层有机碳含量、孔隙度、矿物组分和页岩裂缝发育特征等方面进行研究。分析储层含气性主控因素,旨在对识别准噶尔盆地南缘山前复杂构造带页岩气“甜点”及勘探开发提供地质依据。结果表明,该区芦草沟组泥页岩含气层累计有效厚度206.9 m(34层),其中气层有效厚29 m(3层),最大总含气量1.64 m³/t;储层总含气量与有机碳含量、核磁有效孔隙度和矿物成分之间相关性较弱,与核磁自由流体孔隙度和裂缝密度呈较好的正相关,认为在准噶尔盆地南缘山前冲断带,应以在远离断裂的构造相对稳定区域寻找裂缝型“甜点”为主。  相似文献   

Predicting water flow in fully and partially saturated porous media: a new fractal-based permeability model     

A.  Nguyen Van Nghia  Jougnot  Damien  Thanh  Luong Duy  Van Do  Phan  Thuy  Tran Thi Chung  Hue  Dang Thi Minh  Hung  Nguyen Manh 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(6):2017-2031

Hydrogeology Journal - Predicting the permeability of porous media in saturated and partially saturated conditions is of crucial importance in many geo-engineering areas, from water resources to...  相似文献   

Formation process of two massive dams following rainfall-induced deep-seated rapid landslide failures in the Kii Peninsula of Japan     

Pham Van Tien  Kyoji Sassa  Kaoru Takara  Hiroshi Fukuoka  Khang Dang  Tatsuya Shibasaki  Nguyen Duc Ha  Hendy Setiawan  Doan Huy Loi 《Landslides》2018,15(9):1761-1778

Extreme heavy rainfall due to Typhoon Talas on September 2–4, 2011 in the Kii Peninsula, Japan, triggered numerous floods and landslides. This study investigates the mechanism and the entire process of rainfall-induced deep-seated landslides forming two massive dams in the Kuridaira and Akatani valleys, respectively. The mechanism of the rapid deep-seated landslides is examined through a series of laboratory experiments on samples from sliding surfaces by using undrained high-stress dynamic-loading ring-shear apparatus. The test results indicate that the failure of samples is triggered by excess pore water pressure generation under a shear displacement from 2 to 7 mm with a pore pressure ratio ranging from 0.33 to 0.37. The rapid movement of landslides is mainly attributed to high mobility due to the liquefaction behavior of both sandstone-rich and shale samples. Geomorphic settings and landslide mobility are major contributing factors to the dam formation. Additionally, shear displacement control tests show that a certain amount of shear displacement between 2 and 7 mm along the sliding surfaces of the gravitationally deformed slopes might have led to the failures. Importantly, computer simulation with LS-RAPID software using input parameters obtained from physical experiments is employed to interpret the entire formation process of the abovementioned two landslide dams. The simulation results are examined in accordance with the observed on-site geomorphic features and recorded data to explain the possibility of sliding processes. The results further point out that local failures are initiated from the lower middle part of the landslide bodies where the geological boundary exists. This condition most probably influences the landslide initiation in the two case studies. This research is therefore helpful for hazard assessment of slopes that are susceptible to deep-seated landslides and other sequential processes in areas with geology and geomorphology similar to that of the Kii Peninsula.  相似文献   

Experimental study of the seismic behavior of partially concrete‐filled steel bridge piers under bidirectional dynamic loading     

Huihui Yuan  Ji Dang  Tetsuhiko Aoki 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(15):2197-2216

The seismic behavior of steel bridge piers partially filled with concrete under actual earthquake conditions was investigated by using 20 square section specimens subjected to static cyclic loading tests and single‐directional and bidirectional hybrid loading tests. Acceleration records of two horizontal NS and EW directional components for hard (GT1), medium (GT2), and soft grounds (GT3), obtained during the 1995 Kobe earthquake, were adopted in dynamic tests. Experimental results clearly showed that maximum and residual displacements under actual earthquake conditions cannot be accurately estimated by conventional single‐directional loading tests, especially for GT2 and GT3. A modified admissible displacement was proposed on the basis of bidirectional loading test results. The concrete fill can effectively improve the seismic resistance performance if the concrete inside the steel bridge piers is sufficiently high in quantity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Long‐term seismic performance of reinforced concrete bridges under steel reinforcement corrosion due to chloride attack     

Yu‐Chen Ou  Hong‐Da Fan  Nguyen Dang Nguyen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(14):2113-2127

This work presents a new seismic evaluation methodology for corroded reinforced concrete bridges on the basis of nonlinear static pushover analysis. Corrosion of steel reinforcement by chloride attack is considered. At the material level, the effects of corrosion are considered by modeling the degradation of the mechanical properties of steel reinforcement, softening of cover concrete under compression, degradation of core concrete due to confinement steel corrosion, and reduction of bond strength between concrete and steel reinforcement. At the structural level, the effects of corrosion on both flexural behavior and shear behavior, and their interaction are considered. Eleven bridges of various structural types in Taiwan that are located within 6.5 km of their nearest coastline are analyzed to identify their long‐term seismic performance. Relationships between the yield and collapse peak ground accelerations (PGAs), and service time and corrosion level are established for each bridge. Analysis results show that chloride corrosion starts in 2–32 years. The transverse steel reinforcement typically starts corroding before the longitudinal steel reinforcement, as the former has a thicker cover. Research results show that collapse PGA reduces by 0.94% or 1.23% per 10 years when the mean value plus 1 or 2 standard deviation of the collapse PGA values are considered, respectively. Therefore, we suggest increasing the design PGA from 4.70% to 6.15% for a bridge adjacent to a coastline to ensure adequate long‐term seismic performance for 50 years, the typical design life span of a regular bridge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The occurrence of cyanobacteria and microcystins in the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir (North Vietnam)     

Thi Thuy Duong  Sabine Jähnichen  Thi Phuong Quynh Le  Cuong Tu Ho  Trung Kien Hoang  Trung Kien Nguyen  Thi Nguyet Vu  Dinh Kim Dang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(5):2419-2427

The occurrence of increasing blooms of toxic cyanobacteria in freshwaters has received much attention due to the ability of many cyanobacteria to produce potent cyanotoxins. In this paper, the occurrence of dominant cyanobacteria and the concentration of microcystins (MCs) analysis were investigated monthly from July 2008 to April 2009 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from February to April 2009 in the Nui Coc reservoir. Concentrations of intracellular MCs from water, bloom samples, and isolated strains were quantified by using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). During the study period, the microscopic examination of the phytoplankton samples showed the dominance of the genus Microcystis in the water environment of the Hoan Kiem Lake and the Nui Coc reservoir. The toxin analysis by HPLC demonstrated the presence of two MC variants: MC-LR and MC-RR in water samples. Total concentrations of the toxins in filtered samples from surface water ranged from non-detected to 0.91 μg L^?1 at Nui Coc reservoir and they ranged from 2.1 to 46.0 μg L^?1 at Hoan Kiem Lake. The results of the HPLC analysis confirmed the production of MCs in bloom samples (ranged from 115.9 to 184.6 μg L^?1 in the Hoan Kiem Lake and from 726.5 to 1116 μg L^?1 in the Nui Coc reservoir) and isolated strains of Anabaena sp. and Microcystis with the concentration of MC ranging from 152 to 396.2 μg g^?1 dry mass, respectively.  相似文献   

Long-term riverbed response of lower Tedori River,Japan, to sediment extraction and dam construction     

Minh Hai Dang  Shinya Umeda  Masatoshi Yuhi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(8):2971-2983

Effects of sediment extraction and dam construction on changes of riverbed characteristics over yearly to decadal scales in the lower Tedori River of Japan are clarified. Over 1950–1991, the riverbed degraded in excess of 0.5–3.5 m. Concurrently, riverbed sediment volume of the 0–16 km reach decreased by 12.7 × 10⁶ m³. Intensive sediment extraction was the dominant cause of riverbed degradation during the period. During 1991–2007, an increase in riverbed sediment volume of 0.6 × 10⁶ m³ resulted in accretion of the riverbed by average depth 0.04 m. The cessation of sand and gravel mining (SGM), coupled with Tedorigawa Dam operation since 1980, was responsible for that accretion. Temporal change in riverbed elevation during 1950–2007 indicates that there were five phases of vertical adjustment. Combination of nonlinear regression models described four of these phases well. During 1950–1979, the first four modes of empirical orthogonal function analysis successfully captured temporal and spatial responses of the riverbed to natural and anthropogenic impacts. That is, the first mode explained the mean riverbed profile and temporal variation in riverbed sediment volume. The second through fourth spatial eigenfunctions reflected spatial variation in vertical adjustment rate for phases II, III and I, respectively. The corresponding temporal eigenfunctions explained the respective effects on the riverbed of SGM, of imbalance between sediment transport capacity and sediment supply, and of dredging activity.  相似文献